January 17, 2022

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The IPCC is preparing to release its 6th report in a serious climate

For the first two weeks of Monday, July 26, delegates from 195 member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (CCNUCC) And are collected for approval by scientists « Summary for Policymakers » Sixth Report of the International Committee on Climate Change (IPCC). The first part of this report, devoted to the physics of climate, will be published on Monday, August 9th.

When extreme climatic events follow each other – temperatures and mega temperatures in North America and Siberia, heavy rains and floods in Europe, China and India -, « We are not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of controlling global warming to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century. In fact, we are on the opposite path and we are going for an increase of more than 3 over C », Warned the executive secretary CCNUCC, Patricia Espinosa, at the opening ceremony. Climate Analyst Christoph Caso, Director of Research CNRS And co-author of the Sixth Report of the IPCC, agreed to answer questions Reporter.

Reporter – What are IPCC statements for and how are they drawn up? ?

Christoph Caso – The IPCC was formed in 1988. Scientists are divided into three groups – the physical sites of the first climate science, the second the risks and consequences of climate change, the third adaptation and mitigation – to evaluate the most recent scientific literature on climate. They issue a public statement every six or seven years. The purpose of this report is to provide policymakers and citizens with the best, most up-to-date, most accurate and objective knowledge about climate.

The Sixth Report of the IPCC on August 9 will be changed as part of Group 1, with a summary for decision makers. If the process is not delayed by the Govit-19 epidemic, groups 2 and 3 are expected to be released in 2022 and the summary report is expected to be released in late 2022 or early 2023. This August 9 issue has a specific reference because it will be a major scientific contribution to international negotiations on climate. COP 26, in Glasgow (Scotland) from 10 to 12 November 2021.

The summary approval session for policymakers opened Monday. What these discussions are and why they are important ?

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About three months ago, the authors of Group 1 of the IPCC Report sent representatives of 195 member states 1,200-1,300 pages of Part 1 of the General Report and a summary of about fifteen pages. Of those 1,200-1,300 pages, the authors received a total of more than 75,000 comments in the form of comments and questions, to which scientists are obliged to respond. In summary for policymakers, government representatives have sent more than 3,000 comments.

The opening session is the last step in preparing the report. Contrary to popular belief, representatives of member states do not write the accompanying summary for decision-makers, but question the concept and opinion and the scientists who wrote it. In fact, governments want to ensure that the results of the IPCC report are fully reasonable and detectable, i.e. that they correspond to the best scientific knowledge about climate estimated from scientific publications, and that they want to understand them. But even if a formula is changed as a result of this process, the scientific result will not change. Scientists have the right to deny any change that changes the nature of the scientific conclusion, its meaning and its purpose. Nothing is written that is not scientifically correct.

The whole summary is recognized in this way, line by line. This process is the strength of the IPCC Report, which becomes the general expression of an objective and accurate science and the endorsement of governments by this science. When it was released on August 9, it would no longer be a scientific report, but a report by scientists and state representatives who unanimously approved it. And, In practice, It becomes the statement of the citizens.

In Germany, the recent catastrophic floods (here Bad Munsterifel) have again put climate change at the center of the debate. The states of Europe and North America are eagerly awaiting knowledge and options in dealing with these extreme weather events. © Thomas Grumpin
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Will the leak of an internal IPCC document predicting catastrophic consequences for climate change before 2030 change this process or change the working mindset of scientists and delegates? ? In addition, the news is marked by a number of extreme weather events: the catastrophic floods in Europe, China and India, the recording of temperatures and mega fires in North America and Siberia. ?

I do not have to comment on the leak of an internal IPCC document, it is only a draft and does not go through the whole process of generating IPCC reports. IPCC We just talked. On the other hand, it is true that the release of this report is accompanied by a series of extreme weather events: heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. In Europe and North America, there is great anticipation of knowledge and options to face these extreme weather events. But we will avoid focusing too much on these regions because the summary and report are discussed by 195 countries around the world and they are often affected by serious events – but we talk less because they are so far away from Europe.

There will be a novelty in the sixth report of the IPCC: Chapter 11 focuses on extreme weather events – extreme temperatures, hot or cold, rain, drought, tropical cyclones and storms in our latitudes, fire and so on. – It evaluates the latest scientific knowledge in this matter. We will learn more about the results of this chapter in two weeks when the report comes out. On the other hand, the latest extreme weather events observed this summer have nothing in common with either the report completed in the spring of 2021 or the decision-makers summary.

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But, speaking as a scientist without mentioning the content of the report, we must stop wondering whether all of these extreme weather events are linked to climate change. The answer is obviously yes. As a scientist, I was impressed by the temperature of about 50 C that Canada experienced, but not surprisingly, because scientists have been warning for thirty years that climate change is operating at a frequency., The intensity and duration of extreme weather events. We are on a journey we can never go back to – because we can not retreat – as an unnamed territory – we have never faced these challenges.

The question now is whether our communities are suitable for these events, serious or flexible. ; Of course not, it seems. The question is how to control these greenhouse gas emissions to prevent these events from becoming more serious and recurring. Thirty years ago, scientists predicted that we would suffer in the late 2010s or early 2020s. Today, we are ; If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate, we go into the wall because current events are a small forecast of what might happen.

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